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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Development policy

November 2023

HRDOP Interventions related to lifelong learning

November 2023

Developing the early childhood service system and assessing its role in compensating for disadvantage

November 2023

Evaluation of REACT-EU-funded projects

November 2023

Impacts of developments on improving the quality of life for people living with a disability

August 2023

Evaluation of employability support schemes for disadvantaged people involved in social inclusion measures

August 2022

International economic trends in deteriorating global environment – consequences for Hungary

June 2022

Evaluation of measures to promote access to and retention in higher education

June 2022

Evaluation of EU-funded educational programmes to reduce the rate of school dropouts without a qualification

May 2022

Evaluation of health care and social public service development schemes

August 2021

The impact of COVID-19, sustainability and socio-economic development on Hungary’s competitiveness (in Hungarian)

September 2020

The Restart of European Economy and Its Impact on Central and Eastern Europe

January 2020

Evaluation of the implementation of the Hungarian National Social Inclusion Strategy (HNSIS)

November 2019

Preparation of impact evaluation of EFOP 3.1.5-16 – The support of institutions endangered by early school leaving

2014

Methodological support for the determination of indicators and base value

2014

Study on initiatives and measures to promote youth entrepreneurship

2014

The credit requests of SMEs – market practices and regulations

2013

Compilation of development cadastre on the completed developments

2012

Support to the creation of Cohesion Policy position: the rippling effect of the Central Hungarian region

2010

The changes in the Hungarian macroeconomic structure after the democratic transition, transforming the macroeconomic structure towards sustainability

2010

Mid-term evaluation of TÁMOP/TIOP

Economic forecasts

2024
Fact
2025
Forecast
2026
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 0.4% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -11.1% -4.8% 3.0%
Industrial Production -4.0% -1.7% 3.0%
Gross Salaries 13.2% 8.8% 9.5%
Unemployment Rate* 4.5% 4.5% 4.4%
Current+Capital Account** 2.6% 2.0% 1.0%
General Government** -4.9% -4.8% -4.8%
Consumer Price Index* 3.8% 4.7% 3.9%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 6.5% 6.0%
10-Year Yield*** 6.55% 7.0% 6.5%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

02.09.2025. GDP: strong consumption growth, external position deteriorates

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was up 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP climbed 0.4%. On the expenditure side, final domestic use shifted into higher gear, supported by household consumption expenditures, but also the upturn in inventories and expanding transfers in kind.
However, the growth impact of domestic demand was virtually offset by the downward effect of net export, mostly due to the surge in the import of goods.
On the production side, the accelerating contraction in drought-stricken agriculture was offset by the upturn in construction. While industry keeps suffering, market services growth gathered some speed.
We currently expect the GDP to grow by approximately 0.5% this year.

30.07.2025. GDP expanded at a symbolic rate

According to the first estimate, in the second quarter of 2025, the unadjusted GDP volume was up 0.1% year-on-year, while the seasonally and working day adjusted volume climbed 0.2%. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP expanded by 0.4%. On average, the unadjusted GDP stagnated in the first half of 2025, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was down 0.1% over the same period.
On the production side, services were the main drivers of economic growth while industrial and agricultural production weighed on GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gathered some steam, while investments likely continued to contract, amid the negative growth contribution of net export.
For 2025 as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects the GDP to expand at a very modest rate of 0.5%, since the prospect of a significant upturn in industry and exports is increasingly unlikely.

03.06.2025. GDP: Private consumption growth decelerates amid continuing fall in investments

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP stagnated in the first quarter of 2025, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP volume was down 0.4%. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP contracted by 0.2%, the fifth worst outcome among the EU member states.
On the expenditure side, the ongoing decline in fixed capital formation remained the main drag on growth. Meanwhile, household consumption expenditures continued to grow but the 4.1% growth is well below the average rate in 2024. Decelerating real wage growth seems to make an impact on consumption. Actual private consumption only climbed 2.2% in the first quarter. The overall final domestic use increased at a symbolic rate of 0.4%. This was, however, cancelled out by the negative growth contribution of net exports. On the production side, services continued to be the only growth driver, but even the services growth rate weakened to around 1% in the first quarter. The industrial recession and the fall in construction activity continued.
The Kopint-Tárki currently expects an annual growth rate of around 1% in 2025, but downside risks abound.

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