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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Development policy

November 2023

HRDOP Interventions related to lifelong learning

November 2023

Developing the early childhood service system and assessing its role in compensating for disadvantage

November 2023

Evaluation of REACT-EU-funded projects

November 2023

Impacts of developments on improving the quality of life for people living with a disability

August 2023

Evaluation of employability support schemes for disadvantaged people involved in social inclusion measures

August 2022

International economic trends in deteriorating global environment – consequences for Hungary

June 2022

Evaluation of measures to promote access to and retention in higher education

June 2022

Evaluation of EU-funded educational programmes to reduce the rate of school dropouts without a qualification

May 2022

Evaluation of health care and social public service development schemes

August 2021

The impact of COVID-19, sustainability and socio-economic development on Hungary’s competitiveness

September 2020

The Restart of European Economy and Its Impact on Central and Eastern Europe

January 2020

Evaluation of the implementation of the Hungarian National Social Inclusion Strategy (HNSIS)

November 2019

Preparation of impact evaluation of EFOP 3.1.5-16 – The support of institutions endangered by early school leaving

2014

Methodological support for the determination of indicators and base value

2014

Study on initiatives and measures to promote youth entrepreneurship

2014

The credit requests of SMEs – market practices and regulations

2013

Compilation of development cadastre on the completed developments

2012

Support to the creation of Cohesion Policy position: the rippling effect of the Central Hungarian region

2010

The changes in the Hungarian macroeconomic structure after the democratic transition, transforming the macroeconomic structure towards sustainability

2010

Mid-term evaluation of TÁMOP/TIOP

Economic forecasts

2025
Fact
2026
Forecast
2027
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -2.8% 4.7% 5.5%
Industrial Production -3.2% 1.3% 3.0%
Gross Salaries 9.0% 9.2% 7.0%
Unemployment Rate* 4.4% 4.8% 4.5%
Current+Capital Account** 2.1% 1.5% 1.0%
General Government** -4.7% -6.0% -4.8%
Consumer Price Index* 4.4% 3.1% 3.7%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 5.5% 4.5%
10-Year Yield*** 6.79% 7.3% 6.8%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

30.04.2026. GDP growth gained momentum in Q1

According to the first estimate, both unadjusted GDP and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 1.7% in the first quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.8%. The overall growth performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations by a significant margin.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, but this quarter also saw a positive contribution from industry. On the expenditure side, private consumption certainly remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably weighed on growth even more than before.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%. However, shocks generated by the Iran war may override the baseline growth scenario.

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

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